Saudi Arabia could have as many Saudi nurses as foreign nurses by around 2039, according to a new forecast published on 13 November 2026 in the journal BMC Nursing. The study projects that the Kingdom’s nursing workforce will grow from about 226,580 nurses in 2026 to about 340,000 by 2040, with Saudi and expatriate nurses reaching rough parity at around 166,000 each. For the tens of thousands of nurses from the Philippines, India, Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana and elsewhere who work in Saudi hospitals, the message is mixed: Saudization is real and accelerating, but demand for experienced international nurses is not about to disappear.
Imagine you are a Nigerian ICU nurse in Riyadh, three years into your contract. Every year more young Saudi nurses join your unit, confident, well trained and eager to learn. Your manager asks you to precept two of them. Some colleagues worry that their jobs will vanish. Others see a chance to become the experienced mentors that the system needs. This study helps explain which view is closer to the truth.
What the study found
The study, led by Abbas Al Mutair and colleagues and published in BMC Nursing, analysed annual Saudi nursing workforce data from 2007 to 2025 from the Saudi Ministry of Health and the World Bank. The researchers broke the data down by gender, nationality and sector (Ministry of Health and private) and used time-series forecasting models (ARIMA) to project the workforce to 2040.
Key projections in the central scenario:
- Total nursing workforce: about 226,580 nurses in 2026, rising to about 340,295 by 2040, growth of roughly 2.9% a year.
- Parity: Saudi nurses (about 166,944) are projected to roughly equal foreign nurses (about 166,171) around 2039. The authors stress that the uncertainty ranges overlap, so the year is approximate.
- Saudi nurses in 2040: about 171,432.
- Saudi women in nursing: projected at about 123,600 in Ministry of Health facilities but only about 5,200 in the private sector.
- Current density: about 6.09 nurses per 1,000 people, with new graduate production of about 11 per 100,000 inhabitants.
The authors conclude that Saudi Arabia must increase domestic graduate production to sustain progress, and that recruitment policies need to be paired with supportive work environments to retain Saudi nurses over the long term.
Why Saudization matters for nursing
Saudization, the policy of increasing the share of Saudi citizens in the workforce, has been a priority under the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 programme. Nursing has historically relied heavily on expatriates, which leaves the health system exposed to global competition for nurses. Building a larger national workforce is seen as a matter of resilience as well as employment.
The study’s sector findings are important. Saudi nurses, especially women, are concentrated in Ministry of Health facilities. Private hospitals remain far more dependent on international recruitment, and the forecast suggests that will continue.
A wider trend across the Gulf
Saudi Arabia is not alone. In Kuwait, the Ministry of Health said in early November 2026 that more Kuwaitis are joining nursing. According to the Kuwait News Agency, the ministry held a workshop on “Innovative Strategies for a Sustainable Workforce”, and Nursing Services Department Director Dr Eman Al-Awadhi said nurses make up about 32% of the Health Ministry’s workforce. Officials pointed to incentives under Law No. 70 of 2020 on medical professions and stressed ongoing training, including for nurses recruited from abroad, so they can communicate effectively with patients and the local community.
Gulf hospitals are also paying more attention to retention. King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre in Riyadh reported, in a press release on 1 November 2026, that nursing turnover fell from 6.7% in 2024 to 3.27% in 2025, which it attributes to wellbeing programmes such as its Code Lavender emotional support service and staff-led innovation. These figures are self-reported by the hospital.
What this means for international nurses
Demand will continue for years
Even at the projected parity point, the forecast still has about 166,000 foreign nurses working in Saudi Arabia around 2039. With the total workforce growing by almost 3% a year, international recruitment is likely to remain significant throughout the 2020s and 2030s, particularly in the private sector.
The type of demand is changing
As more Saudi nurses enter general roles, employers are likely to focus international recruitment on:
- Experienced nurses in specialist areas such as intensive care, emergency, operating theatre, dialysis, neonatal intensive care, oncology and cardiac care.
- Nurses with leadership, education and preceptorship skills who can train new Saudi graduates.
- Nurses with bachelor’s degrees, which lead to the higher Nurse Specialist classification with the Saudi Commission for Health Specialties.
- Private hospitals and specialist centres, where Saudization is slower.
Competition for general roles may increase
Nurses with diplomas and limited specialist experience may find fewer openings over time, especially in Ministry of Health hospitals. Upgrading to a BSc, gaining specialist certification and building a strong experience record will make a real difference.
How to stay competitive
- Specialise: aim for at least two years in a high-demand specialty before applying, and keep detailed experience letters.
- Upgrade your qualification: a BSc Nursing affects your classification, salary and job options.
- Develop teaching skills: preceptorship, clinical instruction and mentoring are increasingly valuable as more Saudi graduates enter practice.
- Learn basic Arabic: even simple phrases improve patient communication and show respect, and Gulf ministries emphasise communication skills for recruited nurses.
- Keep your licence and certifications current: BLS, ACLS, PALS or NRP, and specialty courses where relevant.
- Choose ethical employers: use reputable recruiters and read every contract carefully. See our guide on reading a nursing job contract abroad.
What it means for Saudi nursing students
For young Saudis, the forecast confirms that nursing offers stable, growing career opportunities. But the study’s authors highlight that graduate production is still low relative to need, and that retention depends on good working conditions. That means more nursing school places, clinical training capacity, supportive first-year programmes and clear career pathways, including in the private sector, where Saudi women remain under-represented.
What it means for source countries
Countries that send many nurses to the Gulf, such as the Philippines, India, Kenya and Nigeria, should plan for a gradual shift rather than a sudden drop. Nurses who invest in specialist skills will remain in demand, while recruitment for general roles may slow. Policymakers in source countries can use this time to strengthen domestic retention and to negotiate fair, ethical recruitment agreements.
How the forecast was made, and its limits
The researchers used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, a standard method for projecting trends in time-series data, after testing the data for stationarity and checking the models with rolling-window backtesting. This approach assumes that past trends continue. It cannot fully predict sudden changes, such as a major policy shift, an economic shock, a pandemic or a surge in nursing school capacity.
That matters for two reasons. First, if Saudi Arabia expands nursing education faster than in the past, parity could come sooner. Second, if retention of Saudi nurses is weaker than expected, especially in demanding hospital roles, it could come later. The authors themselves describe 2039 as approximate, because the prediction intervals for Saudi and foreign nurses overlap. Treat the forecast as a direction of travel, not a deadline.
A short history of nursing in Saudi Arabia
Nursing in the region has deep roots. Rufaida Al-Aslamia, who cared for the wounded in the seventh century, is widely regarded as the first Muslim nurse, and her name is honoured in nursing awards across the Muslim world. In the modern era, formal nursing education in Saudi Arabia expanded from the mid-twentieth century, with health institutes, then university nursing degrees, and today a growing number of Saudi nurses with master’s degrees and doctorates in leadership, education and research roles.
Despite this growth, rapid expansion of hospitals and health services meant the Kingdom relied on international nurses for decades. The new forecast shows how far that balance is shifting.
Licensing in Saudi Arabia: the pathway in brief
- Secure a job offer from a Saudi employer or work with a licensed recruiter.
- Create an account on the Saudi Commission for Health Specialties (SCFHS) Mumaris+ platform.
- Complete DataFlow primary source verification of your qualification, licence and experience.
- Apply for professional classification. A BSc usually leads to Nurse Specialist; a diploma usually leads to Nurse Technician.
- Pass the Saudi Nursing Licensure Exam (SNLE) at a Prometric centre.
- Complete registration and receive your digital professional licence once your employer links you.
Our full SCFHS guide explains each step, fees and renewal.
Questions to ask a Saudi employer before you sign
- Is the hospital in the Ministry of Health or private sector, and how might Saudization policies affect contract renewals?
- What is my job title and classification, and how does it affect pay?
- What is the full package: basic salary, housing or housing allowance, transport, annual flights, leave and end-of-service benefits?
- How long is the contract, and what are the conditions for renewal or early termination?
- What orientation, preceptorship and continuing education are provided?
- Will I be expected to precept or train new Saudi graduates, and is that recognised in my role?
- Who pays for licensing, exams, flights and visas, and are any costs recovered if I leave early?
Life and work in Saudi Arabia for international nurses
Many international nurses value Saudi Arabia for its tax-free income, modern hospitals, employer-provided accommodation and the chance to save. Social life and rules for foreign residents have changed significantly in recent years, but it remains important to respect local laws and customs, including during Ramadan, when working hours and routines change. Hospitals are multinational workplaces, and nurses often work alongside colleagues from a dozen or more countries. Learning basic Arabic and understanding cultural expectations around modesty, family involvement in care and religious practice helps nurses build trust with patients.
Before travelling, check the rules on bringing medicines into the Kingdom; see our guide to travelling to Saudi Arabia or the Gulf with medicines.
Career paths that are likely to stay in demand
As the Saudi workforce matures, roles that combine clinical expertise with teaching, quality and leadership are likely to grow. International nurses with the right experience may find opportunities as:
- Clinical nurse educators and preceptors, supporting new graduates and transition-to-practice programmes.
- Infection prevention and control nurses, a priority area in large hospitals and mass-gathering health services.
- Quality and patient safety specialists, supporting accreditation and improvement programmes.
- Specialist nurses in critical care, dialysis, oncology, cardiac care, wound care and diabetes education.
- Nurse managers and charge nurses, especially in the private sector.
- Nurse researchers and informatics nurses, as hospitals invest in data, digital health and evidence-based practice. See our nursing informatics career guide.
Planning your finances while you work in the Gulf
Because Gulf contracts are usually fixed-term and residence depends on employment, financial planning matters. Many nurses:
- Set a clear savings goal for each contract year.
- Send money home through regulated channels and keep records.
- Build an emergency fund equal to several months’ expenses in case a contract ends unexpectedly.
- Understand their end-of-service benefits under Saudi labour law and their contract.
- Invest in further qualifications that increase earning power wherever they go next.
A Gulf contract can be life-changing when it is part of a long-term plan. Our guide to a money plan for nurses moving abroad has practical budgeting steps.
Frequently asked questions
Is Saudi Arabia still hiring foreign nurses?
Yes. Saudi Arabia continues to recruit international nurses, especially experienced nurses in specialist areas and in the private sector.
When will Saudi nurses outnumber foreign nurses?
A November 2026 forecast in BMC Nursing projects rough parity around 2039, with wide uncertainty.
Will Saudization affect nurses already working in Saudi Arabia?
Changes are gradual. Experienced nurses in high-demand specialties and those who support training of Saudi nurses are likely to remain valuable. Always check your contract terms and renewal conditions.
How do I get licensed to work as a nurse in Saudi Arabia?
Through the Saudi Commission for Health Specialties: DataFlow verification, professional classification and the Saudi Nursing Licensure Exam via Prometric. See our SCFHS guide.
But should I still plan a move to Saudi Arabia?
If you are an experienced nurse with specialist skills, the Gulf remains one of the fastest routes to well-paid international work, with tax-free salaries and employer-provided housing. Go in with your eyes open: treat it as a stage in your career, build skills and savings, and plan your next step, whether that is a senior role in the Gulf, a move to a country with permanent residence routes, or a return home with valuable experience.
Your next step: If you are planning a Gulf move, list one high-demand specialty you could build experience in over the next two years, and ask your manager about rotation or training opportunities this month.
Related: Nursing in the Middle East: the complete guide · Nursing jobs in Saudi Arabia · Work as a nurse in the Gulf
Sources: Al Mutair A, Daniyal M, Shamsan A, Bahri HA et al. Forecasting the Saudi nursing workforce, BMC Nursing, published online 13 November 2026; Kuwait News Agency via Kuwait Times, 3 November 2026; King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre press release, 1 November 2026.
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